The World Changes! Do You Change With It?
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Fifteen
years of Globe 100 change
Census Analysis Tracks 100 Years of Change
U.S.
depository libraries change:
SIXTY PERCENT OF NEW TITLES NOW AVAILABLE ONLINE
Electronic books and the
future of publishing
From the
Workplace to the Classroom:
Innovation, Reform, and Resistance in the
Communication Age
Cultural Change The next one
Source
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Fifteen years of
Globe 100 change
By Charles Stein, Globe Staff
In some fields — say astronomy or geology — 15 years is no
time at all. Blink and you miss it. But in business, the story is quite
different.
Business years are more like dog years: A lot happens in a
short time. As we publish the 15th edition of The Globe 100, our annual ranking
of Massachusetts companies, change, rather than continuity, is what stands out.
Of the 25 companies that topped our list in 1989, the
maiden issue of The Globe 100, only seven still exist as publicly traded
Massachusetts companies. That's an attrition rate of 72 percent.
A few of the departed companies failed. Many more were
gobbled up in consolidations, in which big fish routinely swallow smaller fish.
Massachusetts has lost more banks, for instance, than many countries had to
begin with.
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And then there are the companies that have hung around,
such as State Street, TJX, Gillette, Raytheon, Reebok, and EMC. They have
survived, and frequently thrived. How does one explain why they are still
around, when so many others are not? More importantly, does their success hold
any lessons for the rest of us?
The Globe 100 is the business equivalent of a beauty
contest. We evaluate the entrants in a variety of categories — return on equity,
change in revenue, and change in profit margin — and then calculate a composite
score. Standard & Poor's Compustat crunched the numbers for us.
Our categories are designed to encompass the qualities that
make for a successful company. To qualify, a company must be publicly traded and
be based in Massachusetts, and profitable for the past two years.
A review of the first 15 years of The Globe 100 gives an
armchair historian a close-up look at the process of creative destruction.
Companies appear and disappear, and new ones show up. Some of those no longer
with us were terrific companies, in their day. Digital Equipment Corp. was once
the world's second-biggest computer company, after IBM. Bank of Boston was a
fixture for more than 200 years. In the 1980s, Lotus Development pioneered a new
industry called software.
Digital was acquired by Compaq, which in turn was acquired
by Hewlett-Packard. Bank of Boston was acquired by Fleet. Lotus became part of
IBM. In technology, companies that missed the wave in computing often didn't
stick around to compete in the next round. In banking, companies that weren't
quite big enough lost out in the Darwinian process of consolidation. In
retailing, Bay State companies were supplanted by bigger, more aggressive
national competitors.
What separates the survivors from the rest of the pack?
Consultants have been trying to answer that question
forever. Classic business books such as "In Search of Excellence" and "Built to
Last" were attempts to find the qualities that surviving companies possess. As
for Massachusetts companies, success seems to have been the result of good
vision, good execution, good deal-making, and a healthy blend of good luck.
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Take State Street, for example. More than 25 years ago, its
leader, William Edgerly, took State Street out of the banking business and
repositioned it as a giant back office for the mutual fund and pension
industries. It was a great call, on two fronts: Banking suffered through some
brutal ups and downs, while mutual funds exploded.
"State Street wound up in a sweet spot," said Thomas
Finucane, who follows finance for State Street Research (no relation to State
Street Corp.)
Fleet survived the banking wars, and given its roots as a
modest-size Rhode Island bank, there was no guarantee it would.
"Terry Murray [the former chief executive] took this little
bank from Providence and turned it into one of the largest banks in the United
States," said Gerard Cassidy, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets.
Murray was a consummate deal-maker, and he pulled off more
mergers and better mergers than the competition. Because Fleet had less exposure
to the New England economy, it came through the disastrous downturn of the early
1990s in much better shape than its rivals.
Was that luck or foresight? You make the call.
TJX, based in Framingham, pulled off a great merger in 1995
when it bought Marshalls, the discount department store. The business cemetery
is filled with failed discounters, including local entries such as Caldor and
Bradlees. Marshalls has put together the blend of low prices and quality
merchandise thAt consumers want. That blend has allowed TJX to prosper, even in
the slow economy of the past few years.
EMC created a better mousetrap. The Hopkinton company was a
flyspeck of a business ($123 million in sales) when we published the first Globe
100. But EMC developed a system of storing computer data that became the
industry's gold standard. In 2000, EMC's sales reached $8.8 billion. The
computer slump has cut those sales sharply. EMC's stock price has dropped from
$100 a share to about $9.
Still, consider this: If you had invested a dollar in EMC
stock in 1989, it would be worth more than $100 today.
Finally, there is Reebok. In the 1980s and early 1990s,
Reebok had the cool sneakers everyone wanted. Then Nike came along and took over
the cool market. Reebok wandered in the wilderness for a long time.
In early 2000, its stock sold for $7 a share. Since then,
the stock has quadrupled, despite a miserable stock market. By hooking up with
basketball star Allen Iverson, Reebok got its cool back and regained some of its
past glory.
As James Collins and Jerry Porras wrote in "Built To Last,"
"Visionary companies display a resilience, an ability to bounce back from
adversity."
There's plenty of adversity
out there today: a sluggish economy, deflation, SARS, terrorism, and intense
global competition.
Some of these forces will claim victims in
Massachusetts. Not every company on our list this year will be back next year.
But if history is a guide, some of the best
will find a way to survive, and new ones will crop up to replace the departed.
As long as the creative part of creative
destruction keeps working, we should come out all right in the end.
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Charles Stein is a Globe columnist
Source

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Contact: |
Public
Information Office, U.S. Census Bureau (301) 763-3691 |
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Agency: |
History,
Arts and Libraries |
Census Analysis Tracks 100 Years of Change
|
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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
DECEMBER 17, 2002 (TUESDAY) |
|
Public Information Office
(301) 763-3691/457-3620 (fax)
(301) 457-1037 (TDD)
e-mail:
2000usa@census.gov |
CB02-CN.173 |
|
|
Census Analysis Tracks 100 Years of Change |
|
At the start of the 20th century, most of the U.S.
population was male,
under 23 years old, lived outside metropolitan areas and rented their
homes. Nearly half lived in a household with five or more other
persons.
One hundred years later, most of the population was female, at least 35
years old, lived in metro areas and owned their homes. Most lived alone
or in a household with one or two other people.
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These are some of the broad-scale changes included in a Census Bureau
special report released today. The report analyzes data gathered in 11
censuses stretching from 1900 to 2000. The subjects covered are from the
Census 2000 short-form questionnaire. Titled Demographic Trends in the
20th Century and released during the bureau's 100th anniversary year,
the report tracks trends in population, housing and household data for
the nation, regions and states.
"Our goal was to produce a publication that appeals to people interested
in the demographic changes that shaped our nation in the 20th century
and to those interested in the numbers underlying those trends," said
Frank Hobbs, who co-authored the report with Nicole Stoops. "We hope it
will serve as a valuable reference work for years to come."
Some highlights of the report:
Population size and geographic distribution
- The U.S. population grew by more than 205 million people during the
century, more than tripling from 76 million in 1900 to 281 million in
2000.
- As the population grew, the geographical population center shifted
324 miles west and 101 miles south, from Bartholomew County, Ind., in
1900 to its current location in Phelps County, Mo.
- In every decade of the century, the West's population grew faster
than the populations of the other three regions.
- Florida's population rank rose more than that of any other state,
catapulting it from 33rd to 4th place in state rankings. Iowa's
population ranking plummeted the furthest, from 10th in the nation in
1900 to 30th in 2000.
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Age and sex
- Children under 5 years old represented the largest five-year age
group in 1900 and again in 1950; but in 2000 the largest groups were 35
to 39 and 40 to 44.
- The percentage of the U.S. population age 65 and over increased in
every census from 1900 (4.1 percent) to 1990 (12.6 percent), then
declined for the first time in Census 2000 to 12.4 percent.
- From 1900 to 1960, the South had the highest proportion of children
under 15 and the lowest proportion of people 65 and over, making it the
country's "youngest" region. The West grabbed that title in the latter
part of the century.
Race and Hispanic origin
- At the beginning of the century, 1-in-8 U.S. residents was of a
race other than white; at the end of the century, the ratio was 1-in-4.
- The black population remained concentrated in the South and the
Asian and Pacific Islander population in the West through the century,
but these regional concentrations declined sharply by 2000.
- Among the races, the American Indian and Alaska Native population
had the highest percentage under age 15 for most of the 20th century.
- From 1980 to 2000, the Hispanic-origin population, which may be of
any race, more than doubled.
- The total minority population people of Hispanic origin or of races
other than white increased by 88 percent between 1980 and 2000 while the
non-Hispanic white population grew by only 7.9 percent.
Housing and household size
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- In 1950, for the first time, more than half of all occupied housing
units were owned instead of rented. The homeownership rate increased
until 1980, decreased slightly in the 1980s and then rose again to its
highest level of the century in 2000 66 percent.
- The 1930s was the only decade when the proportion of owner-occupied
housing units declined in every region. The largest increase in
homeownership rates for each region then occurred in the next decade
when the economy recovered from the Depression and experienced
post-World War II prosperity.
- Between 1950 and 2000, married-couple households declined from more
than three-fourths of all households to just over one-half.
- The proportional share of one-person households increased more than
households of any other size. In 1950, one-person households represented
1-in-10 households; by 2000, they comprised 1-in-4. The 240-page
report, including graphs, maps and tables, may be accessed on the
Internet at
http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/censr-4.pdf [PDF 35M] or
purchased from the Government Printing Office through the Census
Bureau's Customer Service Center on 301-763-4100 (e-mail:
webmaster@census.gov). |
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Source
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Posted on Tue, Dec. 03, 2002 |
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U.S.
depository libraries change
SIXTY PERCENT OF NEW TITLES NOW AVAILABLE ONLINE
By Shawn Neidorf
Mercury News
If you like solitude, you would love a ``federal
depository library,'' a library that stocks government documents from
the mundane to the obscure.
Stroll down the aisles, past decades of the
Congressional Record. Thumb through NASA's ``Technical Report No.
32-990, The Mars 1964-1965 Apparition.'' In another aisle, pick up ``The
Holy Koran in the Library of Congress,'' a 449-page listing of every
Koran translation and Koran-related material held there.
The only sound you'd probably hear would be your
own heels clicking on the shiny tile.
It's not that students, teachers and data-oriented
members of the general public have forsaken research, it's that they've
turned to the Internet for most of it.
That makes for a radical change in how people seek
information that was once found only in the books and binders that fill
depository library shelves. It's an equally radical shift for
librarians, who spend less time helping visitors and more time
cataloging materials online, so patrons they will never see can retrieve
data and documents online.
The shift in how information is collected and used
brings opportunities and challenges to researchers and librarians.
The Government Printing Office, which provides the
documents sent to depository libraries, has been shifting since the
mid-1990s to electronic distribution. About 60 percent of its new titles
are now available online, said Andy Sherman, a GPO spokesman.
``I don't get as many people in the door,'' said
George Carlson, who oversees government documents at Santa Clara
University's library.
The school hosts one of 1,300 depository libraries
nationwide that collect U.S. documents from the Government Printing
Office and preserve them for public use. Other area colleges and
universities also are depositories, as is the Redwood City Public
Library and the San Francisco Public Library.
More
democratic
The shift to electronic documents saves precious
shelf space and lets patrons get at the information anytime from
anywhere they can log onto the Internet.
That's more democratic, said Yvonne Chen, director
of the Redwood City Public Library, herself a former
government-documents librarian. And online keyword searches are faster
and easier than having to identify a document and search for it in the
library, she said.
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But there are drawbacks.
``If people are helping themselves to this stuff
online, I don't know if they are getting what they really are after, or
whether they are willing to just take what's there,'' said Santa Clara
University's Carlson. He worries that online searchers aren't seeing the
explanations and disclaimers that go with the spreadsheets of
statistics, the kind of thing librarians point out to in-person patrons.
And although an online search makes it easier to
pinpoint information, it arrives on the screen shorn of the context it
would have in a larger report or book. The better-targeted a query is,
the less likely the searcher is to have the serendipitous experience of
finding more than he was seeking.
Challenge for
librarians
That's common with a book or paper document, where
related information surrounds the data, said Lance Strate, an associate
professor of communications and media studies at Fordham University and
president of the Media Ecology Association.
For librarians
charged with archiving the nation's history, online documents present a
major -- and largely unanswered -- question: how to store them for
perpetuity. How will researchers get at 2002's electronic documents in
2102, given how much technology is likely to change by then?
It's a crucial question for George Barnum,
electronic collection manager for the Government Printing Office. Most
of the data he works with is in the common formats of html or hypertext
markup language, the common language of the Web, and .pdf or portable
document format, a format that allows documents to retain their original
graphical elements. He stores information he thinks future data
retrievers will need to open documents in XML format, attached to each
file. XML, or extensible markup language, a system for creating classes
of data and defining the relationships between those classes.
``What you aim to do is, over time, to keep the
information, the content, in spite of the application that it takes to
render it.''
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``I've been in on a lot of discussions and a lot of
planning where we look at horizons of 10 to 100 years, but that's just a
modeling technique,'' Barnum says, ``the idea being if we can keep a
digital publication or a digital object alive from 10 to 100 years, we
can probably keep it alive forever.''
Quiet place
to study
In the bunker-like underground documents library at
Stanford University, Amit Patel, a sophomore in international relations,
sat alone at a table, drawing neat triangles in his notebook. He didn't
come to the documents library to look anything up, but to study for an
economics exam. He came for the quiet; few students use the stacks
surrounding him.
Patel says he does most of his research online.
When he is uncertain of the methodology or credibility of a data source
he uses, he discloses those limitations in his paper. He prefers
secondary sources that cite statistics -- and come with analysis -- over
the original statistics themselves. And only for major papers will he go
beyond the Internet to find paper documents.
In the bunker-like underground documents library at
Stanford University, Ann Cho settled in to search the shelves for labor
documents. The junior economics major needed to find the wages of female
telegraph workers in the late 19th century. For information that old,
students need paper records.
Mike Wynne, a Santa Clara sophomore studying
philosophy says he retains what he learns better from paper materials.
``It's tangible.''
Wynne said he has his doubts about
Internet-discovered data: ``For some reason, I don't feel it's as
legitimate.''
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© 2002 Mercury News and wire service sources. All Rights
Reserved.
http://www.bayarea.com
Source



Gutenberg's innovations in the printing
technology revolutionised medieval Europe's ability to share expertise and
increase knowledge. As we begin 21st century, further revolutionary change
is possible through the impact of electronic books. This technology is
already mature enough for clinicians and academics, even though the UK
medical publishing industry has not yet caught on.
The Printing Press
The nations of 1450's Europe were
undergoing a massive increase in complexity, with developments in science,
commerce, law and warfare. In many cases, the bottleneck for further
development was the ability of scribes to produce written materials. No
matter how many new entrants to the profession, society still needed more.
Enter Johannes Gutenberg - inventor,
goldsmith… and businessman. Like any good businessman, Gutenberg was
constantly on the lookout for market opportunities. He diagnosed the
market's need for mass produced writing. Like any good businessman,
Gutenberg borrowed money to research a solution for this gap in the market.
He produced the printing press, with innovations in the use of movable metal
type. And like any good businessman, he was good at marketing. His first
publication was thus the bible, the world's first, and still greatest,
bestseller. But Gutenberg had an eye on where the real money was -
Indulgences. Indulgences were rich people's way of buying forgiveness from
God for their sins, and the Church's way of funding religious wars.
Gutenberg wanted to mass produce these indulgences for the Church, in effect
a license to print money.
Sadly for Gutenberg, he never got
that far in his business model as he was unable to pay off his creditors in
time. His press and patents were confiscated. But he had still unleashed a
revolution.
Future historians may decide that Harry
Potter was the pinnacle of publishing in the 20th century. The book that
became a brand reminded millions of children of the joys of reading and
contributed to mass literacy. To me, however, the contents of my college
library represent the pinnacle.
As an undergraduate medical student, I was
initially frustrated by the books held in this library. None of the major
textbooks that I needed were available when I needed them most. Eventually,
I grudgingly bought these textbooks, and made peace with the library. I was
then free to explore its other books with an open mind. And these books were
obscure. Really obscure.
One book, for example, was devoted to the
six muscles of the eye. Not vision, not the eye, but the six muscles of the
eye. Another book was entitled Queuing Systems. Queuing theory, I
discovered, is an expanding science, with applications from computer
networks to aircraft control.
Each year, the publishing industry
produces thousands more such books, ever larger, ever more specialised, ever
more obscure. Yet every year, the industry's cost-effectiveness manages to
make money from such books, allowing further investment. The miracle of
modern publishing is that it is cost-effective to produce obscure texts.
With electronic books, there is the
possibility of further bringing down the costs of publishing. And the price
of handheld electronic book readers is also coming down. Prices are already
low enough to allow anyone to publish to everyone, for reading everywhere.
The UK medical publishing industry has held back in taking advantage of the
new possibilities, waiting to see the results of the US experience.
However, members of the BMIS community can
still push ahead with using the technology. Think about it. You can easily
and cheaply produce an electronic book that contains articles, lectures,
protocols, papers or any other information you want to carry with you and
share with colleagues. And the cost of distributing the content is close to
zero. Put it on a floppy, email it a colleague, post it on your
institution's website - the knowledge is available for others to read and
use. Move beyond Harry Potter and continue Guttenberg's good work.
Source
From the Workplace to the
Classroom:
Innovation, Reform, and Resistance in the Communication Age
Mark Warschauer - University of Hawai'i
markw@hawaii.edu,
http://www.lll.hawaii.edu/markw
Efforts at educational and technological reform in the
classroom mirror changes taking place elsewhere in society, especially in the
workplace. In this paper, I first examine the overall socio-economic framework
which is shaping technological reform. I then discuss and compare research which
has been conducted on the impact of new technologies in the workplace and in the
classroom.
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Economic Change, Work, and Education
The nature of work and
education has changed dramatically in the last 200 years. We can examine this
period in three eras: the agricultural era, industrial era, and informational
era. During the agricultural era (until the late 19th century in the United
States), the majority of the population worked on farms. Little formal education
was required, as farming was learned through personal apprenticeship. Education,
which focused on rote learning, oral recitation, imitation of "correct" speech
and writing, and memorization, served to enforce the aristocratic mores of
society (de Castell & Luke, 1986).
During the industrial era (from the early
20th century until about the 1970s in the U.S.), the majority of people worked
in manufacturing. Factories were organized according to a Fordist model of a
strict vertical hierarchies, minute divisions of labor, and individual
compartmentalized skills. Schools too came to be influenced by the same model,
with students learning decontextualized functional sub-skills through programmed
instruction in large classes (de Castell & Luke, 1986).
In the informational era (from about the
1970s in the U.S.), increases in productivity depend on the use of science and
technology to manage the quality of information (Castells, 1996). The archetypal
workplace is the office, and work is increasingly organized on post-Fordist
principals of horizontal networks, teamwork, a flexible division of labor, and
just-in-time production and distribution (Gee, Hull, & Lankshear, 1996).
Informationalism requires a new learning mode emphasizing collaborative inquiry
and systems thinking (Reich, 1991).
Thus both schools and workplaces need to reorganize to
reflect more effectively the imperatives of today's society. And both need to
make effective use of technologies as part of this reform process. This becomes
complicated, however, by the changing role of technology from the industrial to
the informational era. Previously technology served principally to automate
(remove processes from human control); today, though, technology also serves to
informate (Zuboff, 1988), that is, to provide a deeper level of
information to a broader array of people (thus to give people more
control).
Technology-Based Reform in the Workplace
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Zuboff (1988) studied eight companies (in factories, mills,
and offices) for five years to determine the impact of new "informating"
technologies on work relations. She found that companies that did not reform
their organizational structure in correspondence to the power of new
technologies suffered serious problems, as workers, once they had access to more
information, insisted as well on having more power and control. As Zuboff
explains, "the informating process sets knowledge and authority on a collision
course" (p. 310).
Kling and Zmuidzinas (1994) postulated four types of
transformation that the infusion of computer technology could bring about in a
company: metamorphoses (abrupt change to a new paradigm of social organization),
migration (gradual shift in the direction of a new type of organization),
elaboration/reinforcement (strengthening of an existing organizational
paradigm), and stability (no change). They then studied 40 companies over a
three-year period to see the actual impact of new technologies. The results were
about evenly divided between migration, elaboration/reinforcement, and
stability, with no cases found of metamorphoses. According to their research,
there were five factors which affected which kinds of change took place:
managerial ideologies, the strategies adopted for implementing reform, the
social organization of work groups, the occupational power of work groups, and
the degree of integration of technology.
Technology-Based Reform in the Schools
Researchers on technology and school reform have found
almost the exact same phenomena. Cuban (1986) conducted a review of 100-years of
technology-based reform involving film, radio, and television. He found that new
technologies were often heralded as being revolutionary in impact, but were
implemented in a top-down fashion and only effected education marginally.
Sandholtz, Ringstaff, and Dwyer (1997) conducted a ten-year
study of computer technology in five schools. They found that computer
technologies did have a big effect in situations where schools and teachers were
able to implement broader innovations, including student-centered learning and
team-teaching. This entailed a lengthy process of teachers working together to
develop new beliefs and attitudes toward how students learned. Teachers who
maintained traditional beliefs found the changes frustrating and reverted to
lecture-style teaching; they encountered resistance though from students who
were used to student-centered approaches.
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I found similar results in a two-year ethnographic study of
four computer-intensive language and writing classes in three colleges in
Hawai'i (Warschauer, 1997). Teachers implemented uses of technology that were
consistent with and reinforced their own approach to the teaching of language
and writing. For the three teachers who were in favor of student-centered
learning, the transition to using computers went fairly smoothly. The teacher
who had a more structural approach, emphasizing discipline and control in the
writing process and classroom, had more difficulties in integrating new
technologies, as students resented using computers for non-communicative
structural work and exercises. This was another example of informating
technologies failing when not accompanied by empowering processes.
In summary, new technologies can contribute to making
schools better prepared for the age of information, but only if they are
introduced along with broader reforms of social organization. Steps that can
help in the introduction of technology-based reform include (1) a focus on broad
educational goals, rather than technical issues; (2) an examination of the
overall educational context which shapes how technology is used (including how
testing is carried out, how much time teachers have for planning, etc.); (3) an
emphasis on taking into account teachers beliefs (and working teachers with
teachers to examine and develop their beliefs); (4) an emphasis on full
integration of technology with the curriculum and teaching goals (rather than
seeing technology as an add-on); and (5) efforts to build broad social support
for change through the inclusion of technical support, release time for
teachers, ongoing training, and professional reward for effective use of
technology.
The infusion of computers will not turn a bad school, or a
bad company, into a good one. But computers can play a very important role in
workplaces and schools which are willing to engage in necessary reform.
References
Castells M, The rise of the network society (Malden,
MA: Blackwell, 1996)
Cuban L, Teachers and machines: The classroom use of
technology since 1920 (New York: Teachers College Press, 1986)
de Castell S, & A Luke, 'Models of literacy in North
American schools: Social and historical conditions and consequences' in S de
Castell, A Luke, & K Egan (Eds.), Literacy, society, and schooling:
87-109 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1986)
Return To Top
Gee J P, G Hull, & C Lankshear, The new work order:
Behind the language of new capitalism (St. Leonards, Australia: Allen &
Unwin, 1996)
Kling R, & Zmuidzinas 'Technology, ideology and social
transformation: The case of computerization and work organization' Revue
International de Sociologie, 2: 28-56 (1994)
Reich R, The work of nations: Preparing ourselves for
21st century capitalism (New York: Knopf, 1991)
Sandholtz J H, C Ringstaff & D C Dwyer, Teaching with
technology: Creating student-centered classrooms (New York: Teachers College
Press, 1997)
Warschauer M, Electronic literacies: Language, culture,
and power in online education Manuscript submitted for publication (1997)
Zuboff S, In the age of the smart machine: The future of
work and power (Basic Books: New York, 1988)
Source
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[Karl Note: I found this article to be interesting,
even convincing, until I thought about it further. There is something more basic
than the examples of cultural levels presented here.
Much more basic is the difference in "awareness levels"
among these same groups. The difference in awareness level translates, also, to
differences in morality -- with "morality" defined to mean "behavior that
promotes the optimum survival of the group, generally 'mankind' if you want an
expansive view."
This is presented further in a Policy
I've written here.]
The coming change
Between 2010 and 2025 the conditions for
a big cultural change will be met. This will happen as a result of the
current communication revolution. The magnitude of cultural change is
proportional to the amount of communication increase (se the
quantum leap communication hypothesis)
. So, a big increment in communication flows will produce big cultural
changes .
But as far as the communication
revolution is unfolding very quickly, cultural impacts will happen very
quickly too. In consequence, after 2010 we may expect that humankind
will need to absorb a huge amount of novelty in a very short period of
time. Meanwhile, the vast majority of people may not be able to handle
it.
The ability to cope with a very large
novelty intake depends on some individual characteristics, but mainly i)
on the culture people use and ii) the social framework where people live
in.
Cultural and economic environment may
facilitate changes or, conversely, may hamper them. So we may
distinguish cultures depending on their ability to facilitate change and
novelty intake. On the basis of cultural changes occurred during the
last 25 years, let's consider four different types of culture.
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Type
 |
People living within
these cultural regions remain using their traditional way of life.
They live the same way their ancestors did 1000 years ago. |
Type
 |
Those cultures allow
some changes but they happen very slowly. Usually, they correspond
to pre-industrial societies. |
Type
 |
Change has taken place
even if some important cultural elements still evolve slowly.
Generally speaking, societies in transition to industrialization
have this type of cultures. |
Type
 |
This kind of cultures
have allowed notable changes during the last 25 years. They
correspond to confirmed industrial societies and, mainly, the
post-industrial ones. |

It is important to underlay
that different speed in the novelty intake produces growing distances
between cultural regions. And distances generate tensions. From now on,
those tensions are going to grow.
PROSPECTS FOR CULTURAL CHANGE
Cultures from more dynamic
societies (type 4) will substantially increase their ability to handle
novelty even if novelty will raise quicker than the capacity to cope
with. This may produce i) a digital divide and ii) several forms of
congestion among their populations.
Cultures belonging to
regions in development (type 3), will also evolve but at a lower rate.
Some privileged individuals will cope with the novelty overload, but the
whole social system will not. As a consequence, the gap between the
rise of novelty and the ability of their populations to cope with it,
will grow.
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In the case of less dynamic
cultures (type 2 and type 1) the prospect is worse. Here again, some
individuals could face the rise of novelty but social systems will
remain very far away from what it would be required.
Difficulties for facilitating change are
related to the relationship that everyone maintains with its own culture
(see '
The unbending process ').
CONCLUSIONS
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The first conclusion lies on the danger
of very serious tensions between different cultural areas. Until now, we
have managed intercultural tensions with more or less success.
Nevertheless, current tensions could only be a small scale prelude of
what we are going to face in the near future.
In the years to come, the magnitude of
intercultural clash may result from: i) unsustainable migratory
pressures upon the more advanced regions, ii) quick proliferation of
bitter forms of international activism and terrorism and perhaps iii)
some forms of civilization confrontations.
The second conclusion is related to the
tensions within every cultural region.
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In the most advanced regions it will
appear what we could call ' the different speed citizens phenomena '.
This will be enhanced by:
- several forms of digital divide, ( see
The
digital fracture )
- the fast increase of recent arrived
immigrants,
- the quick growth of several forms of
past-oriented social segments, which will be virulent and might result
from novelty overload, particularly among certain types of people.
In the case of domestic tensions in the
other cultural regions (type 1, 2 and 3) they will be of the same kind
of those occurred in the more advanced regions, except those linked to
immigration. The cultural shock in the fastest type 3 developing
regions will be severe. In the more slow ones, the gap with the more
advanced cultures will be extremely harmful.
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The combined effect of international and
domestic tensions and their astonishing magnitude draws a nightmare
scenario, specially by the end of the current decade and afterwards.
All those problems appear to be related
to the inability of current cultures in order to manage i) the rise of
novelty and ii) the coming intercultural struggles. Populations need
more effective patterns of behavior, renewed cognitive structures and
better motivations in order to increase their ability to face the years
to come.
| The main conclusion
is that we need to make our cultures to evolve. It must be done
quickly, towards any direction able enough to enhance our ability
to stimulate change and, at the same time, to assimilate it. |
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GENERAL
MOBILIZATION SCENARIO
In this scenario, between 2002 and 2004 a
debate on cultural change starts all over the World. Many persons and
organizations become involved.
Between 2005 and 2010, the failure of
current cultures to manage the new emergent problems becomes obvious and
the time for action will have come.
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From the 2010 perspective it will become
evident that the pacific cohabitation of different World populations
will not be reached by the means of candid pacifistic attitudes,
dualistic explanations (the good and the evil) or mere altruistic
initiatives. All these may help to deal with some superficial problems
but has no helpful effect on the deepest culture layers, from where the
precursors of the conflicts come. On the other hand, violence will not
be considered as the indefinite solution aiming at solving problems,
satisfying needs, controlling conflicts and facilitating cohabitation.
As a result, a kind of general emergency
state takes place and several large projects of culture transformation
start everywhere.
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